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Findings
- Go to finding 1Middle- and high-income consumers, and consumers ages 65 and older, were responsible for most of the slowdown in growth, 而低收入和35岁以下的消费者则保持了相对稳定的消费增长.
- Go to finding 2大企业支出的萎缩幅度大于中小企业支出。, 不过，中小企业在本地消费商业支出放缓中所占的比重几乎与大型企业一样大.
- Go to finding 3消费者在其所在大都市地区的支出增长放缓幅度最大, particularly at businesses in their own neighborhoods.
- Go to finding 4销售燃料和其他非耐用品的企业的支出增长大幅放缓, and not only because of price declines.
- Go to finding 5从2013年第二季度到2014年第二季度，大多数大都市地区强劲而多样化的增长放缓，从2014年第二季度到2015年第二季度，全面放缓增长.
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December 2015
12bet官方研究所(JPMorgan Chase Institute)的研究显示，在美国15个主要大都市地区，消费者在大多数商品和服务上的日常支出同比增长大幅放缓, from 5 percent in the second quarter of 2014 to 0.5 percent in the comparable period in 2015.
日常支出增长放缓是美国经济数据中几个令人困惑的信号之一. 在过去四年中，除2014年第一季度外，国内生产总值(gdp)每个季度都在增长, but in fits and starts. Unemployment is down and corporate profits have largely been solid. In real terms, retail sales have also grown every quarter since the 2009 recession, though inconsistently and at a slowing rate. 在该行业内部，不同类别的支出增长差异很大. For example, auto sales have grown strongly in recent months, 但几家大型连锁店和其他商家预测，2015年的假日季将会很艰难.
A new, powerful data asset——12bet官方研究所的《12bet官网》——让我们得以阐明这些模棱两可的指标. With this new data set, we can analyze important characteristics of the transactions between consumers and businesses at the point of sale and at the neighborhood, city, and metropolitan-area levels. In this initial report, we use these data to explore the marked 4.2014年第二季度至2015年第二季度，本地消费商务增长放缓5个百分点 15 metropolitan areas nationwide. Specifically, we identify the contribution of different consumer and business segments to this slowdown.
Finding One: Middle- and high-income consumers, and consumers ages 65 and older, were responsible for most of the slowdown in growth, 而低收入和35岁以下的消费者则保持了相对稳定的消费增长.
我们将支出增长放缓归因于收入较高和年龄较大的消费者, whose spending fell significantly from a moderate level of growth. This contrasts with young consumers, whose spending continued to grow healthily, and with low-income consumers, whose spending slowed but is still rising.
Finding Two: 大企业支出的萎缩幅度大于中小企业支出。, 不过，中小企业在本地消费商业支出放缓中所占的比重几乎与大型企业一样大.
Finding Three: 消费者在其所在大都市地区的支出增长放缓幅度最大, particularly at businesses in their own neighborhoods.
Finding Four: 销售燃料和其他非耐用品的企业的支出增长大幅放缓, and not only because of price declines.
我们将支出增长放缓归因于销售燃料和其他非耐用品的企业. While fuel was a small share of total spending, 汽油价格的急剧下跌在很大程度上导致了当地消费商业的整体放缓. Nearly as important was a slowdown in spending on other nondurables, notably apparel, food, medical commodities, and recreational goods. Among these other nondurables, price declines contributed only to slowing spending on apparel, and just in part. 餐饮业和其他服务业继续保持温和但平稳的增长.
Finding Five: 从2013年第二季度到2014年第二季度，大多数大都市地区强劲而多样化的增长放缓，从2014年第二季度到2015年第二季度，全面放缓增长.
We find weaker spending in nearly all 15 metropolitan areas, with no city experiencing particularly strong growth. Local consumer commercial growth among the 15 cities ranged from -1.5 percent to 2.6 percent between Q2 2014 and Q2 2015. In contrast, 从2013年第二季度到2014年第二季度，大多数城市的支出增长率都有所上升, with a range of 2.7 percent to 11.2 percent. 亚特兰大是个例外，在这两个时期，当地消费商业都出现了下滑.
我们的分析表明，高收入老年消费者的支出变化在支出增长放缓中发挥了重要作用, as did spending at both SMEs and large businesses, spending on nondurable goods including but not limited to fuel, and spending by customers at the businesses closest to home. Over time, 《12bet官方》将提供国家和城市一级商业活力的月度数据，并将按季度发布. 我们希望我们正在进行的数据系列将作为一个丰富的平台，帮助回答有关消费部门的重要问题, the dominant sector of the economy.
