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发现
- 去找1Cash balances increased temporarily by roughly 70 percent in April 2020 and January 2021, 在刺激资金到位之后, 但在支付这些款项后，价格持续下跌.
- 去找2初始流动资金余额较低的家庭——收入较低和账户持有人较年轻——在百分比基础上经历了最大的余额增长, but lost those initial balance gains the fastest.
- 去找3We see faster spend-down in liquid assets among families with essential workers.
- 去找4低收入家庭的大流行病余额最初增加是由于账户流入增加所致, while high-income families offset decreases in inflows by larger decreases in outflows.
- 去找5Income increased for low-income house¬holds despite greater job losses, 部分原因是政府的支持.
- 去找6After initial spending decreases across the income distribution, 低收入家庭的支出反弹至高于正常水平，而高收入家庭的支出仍与之前的趋势大致持平.
- 见第7节影响
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2021年5月
More than a year after the declaration of national emergency on March 13, 2020, the 新型冠状病毒肺炎 pandemic continues to constrain economic activity in unprecedented ways. 对团体聚会和非必要外出的限制使某些企业难以维持, 导致裁员和倒闭. 在其他行业, 远程工作已成为新常态, leading to dramatic shifts in daily needs and routines for employees. 学校也在努力重新开学, with some forced back into remote instruction after increases in infections.
As families work to adapt to these frequently-changing conditions, economic health and stability are top of mind for policymakers. The most vulnerable among us have been impacted the most, 低收入者面临的失业率高于高收入者(Ganong等人). 2020). 政府采取了大规模干预措施，通过资助刺激支票，在财务上支持家庭, expanding and supplementing Unemployment Insurance (UI), 并减免债务.
在这份报告中, we shed light on families’ financial positions during the pandemic, and how changes in behavior and policy have played a role. Using patterns in liquid balances as a lens into household finances, we aim to understand how the pandemic has affected financial vulnerability. 具体来说，我们关注两个主要问题. 首先, how have liquid asset balances changed for families during the 新型冠状病毒肺炎 pandemic, 不同家庭的人口特征和就业行业又有何不同? 第二, what are the drivers of these observed changes in balance? 具体来说，在大流行期间，消费者的收入、支出和债务支付是如何变化的?
找到一个: Cash balances increased temporarily by roughly 70 percent in April 2020 and January 2021, 在刺激资金到位之后, 但在支付这些款项后，价格持续下跌.
余额在整个分布中都有所增加，低端的相对百分比变化更大
发现二: 初始流动资金余额较低的家庭——收入较低和账户持有人较年轻——在百分比基础上经历了最大的余额增长, but lost those initial balance gains the fastest.
发现三: We see faster spend-down in liquid assets among families with essential workers.
发现四: 低收入家庭的大流行病余额最初增加是由于账户流入增加所致, while high-income families offset decreases in inflows by larger decreases in outflows.
发现五: Income increased for low-income house¬holds despite greater job losses, 部分原因是政府的支持.
发现六: After initial spending decreases across the income distribution, 低收入家庭的支出反弹至高于正常水平，而高收入家庭的支出仍与之前的趋势大致持平.
找到七: 影响
Families had elevated cash buffers at the end of 2020, boosted again in January 2021 by a second round of stimulus. 如上所示, 两轮刺激计划使家庭现金余额在2020年4月和2021年1月分别比上年提高了约70%. 通常, families experience a further increase in cash balances during tax season, 当大多数家庭收到退税价值, 平均, 六个星期的收入, fueling spending and saving for more than half the year (Farrell et al. 2019). 因此, cash buffers may remain elevated for some families into the first half of 2021, 即使没有第三轮刺激支票.
在2021年1月初的第二轮刺激之后，现金缓冲的激增似乎持续时间较短. 而在今年余下的时间里，第一轮刺激后的余额增长逐渐减少, 第二次付款的结余收益似乎在随后几周内恢复. There could be several factors contributing to the different patterns. 首先, the disbursement timeline for the second round was much more compact than the first. 第二个, spending—and outflows in general—were depressed during the spring of 2020, 为平衡做出积极贡献, 没有相应的流入减少. Given that outflows had mostly returned to typical levels by the end of 2020, that could partially explain a faster depletion of January 2021 balance gains. 最后, the second stimulus disbursement occurred when cash balances were still elevated, 使家庭能够更迅速地使用刺激资金，而不是为了进一步支撑现金缓冲而保留这些资金. 我们通过支出的增加观察到这一点, 债务和信用卡支付, 以及向储蓄的转移——在早期大流行的高度不确定性期间，所有这些可能都被搁置了.
社会保障体系和经济刺激在提高家庭现金储备方面发挥着关键作用, 尤其是低收入家庭, 显示针对性支持的重要性. 按百分比计算, increases in cash balances were most pronounced for families in the lower income quartiles. 在大流行期间，低收入家庭的总收入中位数增幅也最大, 尽管失业率最高. Supplemental increases to UI benefits contributed to these increases in total income.
在大流行初期，所有收入四分位数的流动余额都有所增加, 收入和支出对这些结余的贡献方式因收入范围而异. 对于大多数家庭来说, balances grew despite elevated outflows because of even larger increases in inflows, 但高收入家庭的情况正好相反:尽管资金流入减少，但由于资金外流同时减少，家庭余额仍在增长. 收入最低的三个四分之一家庭的支出、有条件债务和信用卡支付金额同比增长. They also experienced year-over-year increases in total income, supplemented by increases in unemployment insurance. 后一个因素超过了前一个因素，导致支票账户余额中位数增长. 与此形成鲜明对比的是, 在疫情的大部分时间里，收入最高的家庭的总收入与2019年持平, representing a decrease relative to pre-pandemic elevation over the prior year. 同时, their spending was below or at parity with 2019 levels, 他们的债务偿还也是如此. 这些流出行为的减少足以让最高收入家庭的中位数余额持续上升, 尽管资金流入稳定.
对家庭部门的分配观点对于了解大流行期间典型家庭的财务结果至关重要. 如Finding One所示, 平衡趋势因指标而异:平均值通常保持稳定上升，而中位数则稳步下降. 这意味着仅依靠总体平均统计数据可能会掩盖典型家庭财务结果的重要变化. Moreover, aggregate statistics on the deposits of 家庭和非营利组织 此外，商业银行不会将家庭的结果与其他部门区分开来. 这种区分对于理解大流行和政策对典型家庭的影响至关重要.
我们感谢我们的研究团队, 特别是Tanya Sonthalia和刘玉宁, for their hard work and contributions to this research.
Additionally, we thank Anna Garnitz and Sruthi Rao for their support. We are indebted to our internal partners and colleagues, who support delivery of our agenda in a myriad of ways, and acknowledge their contributions to each and all releases.
We would like to acknowledge Jamie Dimon, CEO of 12bet官方 & Co., 表彰他在建立研究所和推动正在进行的研究议程方面的远见卓识和领导能力. 我们仍然深深地感谢彼得·谢尔, 企业责任主管, 希瑟Higginbottom, JPMC主席 政策Center, 以及公司其他员工的资源和支持，以开创一种新的方法，为全球经济分析和洞察力做出贡献.
